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Jamaica vs Mexico Predictions - Low-scoring CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-final predicted

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 12 Jul 2023

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Ralph Staniforth 12 Jul 2023

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Watch Jamaica vs Mexico in Monday's CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifier (04:00 SAST)
Mexico favourites to progress to their 8th Gold Cup Final since 2003
Can Jamaica reach their 3rd final in 8 years?

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Jamaica (Getty Images)

Jamaica vs Mexico Preview

Mexico are rightfully favoured to reach yet another Gold Cup final, however, the Jamaicans cannot be underestimated given their recent run of form.

I expect a tight and closely-run contest that could see under 2.5 goals scored with extra-time or even penalties required to find a winner.

Jamaica won their last 3 Gold Cup games.

5 of the last 8 GC semi-finals since 2017 under 2.5 goals scored.

Jamaica are unbeaten in their last 2 Gold Cup games against Mexico.

Head to Head

Wednesday´s second semi-finalists have clashed on 32 previous occasions since 1962. Mexico claimed the spoils in 21 of those matches, with Jamaica winning just five.

Since September 2021, Mexico have maintained an undefeated record against Jamaica in their four most recent encounters (W2, D2). All four matches also saw both teams scoring.

However, Jamaica won 1-0 when these nations last met at this competition in 2017.

Jamaica Form

Jamaica continues to impress at these finals. A 1-0 quarter-final victory against Guatemala made it three wins in a row for Heimir Hallgrímsson´s improving side.

The Reggae Boyz had not won any of their previous 11 prior to this event.

Beaten finalists at the Gold Cup in both 2015 and 2017, Jamaica have yet to win this competition.

Jamaica Team News

Goalkeepers: Andre Blake, Coniah Boyce-Clarke, Jahmali Waite

Defenders: Dexter Lembikisia, Amari’i Bell, Ethan Pinnock, Di’Shon Bernard, Damion Lowe, Adrian Mariappa, Kemar Lawrence, Javain Brown

Midfielders: Kevon Lambert, Daniel Johnson, Bobby Decordova-Reid, Joel Latibeaudiere, Kahim Parris, Jon Russel

Forwards: Leon Bailey, Cory Burke, Shamar Nicholson, Demarai Gray, Dujuan Richards, Michael Antonio

With victories in each of their last three games, Jamaican boss Heimir Hallgrímsson is unlikely to make dramatic alterations to his starting XI.

Kevon Lambert is a doubt, having been forced off at half-time in Wednesday´s win against Guatemala. Daniel Johnson will likely come into the side should Lambert miss out.

Mexico Form

Mexico enjoyed a comfortable 2-0 win against Costa Rica to book their place in Wednesday´s semi-final. Jamie Lozano´s side have now kept clean sheets in three of their last four victories.

El Tri have an exceptional record at the Gold Cup. Winners in four of the last seven competitions since 2009, Mexico have also won 10 of their last 12 Gold Cup semi-finals.

Mexico Team News

Goalkeepers: Jose Antonio Rodriguez, Luis Malagon, Guillermo Ochoa

Defenders: Julian Araujo, Cesar Montes, John Vasquez, Gerardo Arteaga, Jorge Sanchez, Israel Reyes, Victor Guzman, Jesus Gallardo

Midfielders: Edson Alvarez, Luis Romo, Carlos Rodriguez, Sebastian Cordova, Orbelin Pineda, Luis Chavez

Forwards: Ozziel Herrera, Alexis Vega, Santiago Gimenez, Erik Sanchez, Uriel Antuna, Henry Martin

Verdict

Jamaica v Mexico

A fascinating semi-final duel that seems likely to go the distance. Both teams have performed well in the past fortnight, and I expect a tight, low-scoring contest at Allegiant Stadium with under 2.5 match goals.

Despite Mexico´s status as favourites, Jamaica have the quality to at least force extra time, and I'm taking the Reggae Boyz in the double chance market.

Under 2.5 Goals

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