Italy vs France Predictions - Italy backed in handicap market

Marc Thomas

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Last updated: 20 Feb 2025

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Marc Thomas 20 Feb 2025

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Italy drew with France during the 2024 Six Nations.
Italy can cover in the handicap market.
France needs victory to maintain title hopes, tweaking tactics for success.

These two drew 13-all in their last meeting (Getty Images)

Italy vs France Predictions

Italy managed to draw the last time they played France in 2024 and have the quality to challenge the Rugby World Cup semi-finalists. I am backing the hosts to get within 17.5 points.

Italy vs France Predictions
Head to Head
Italy Form
Italy Injuries & Team News
France Form
France Injuries & Team News

Italy won their last home match.
Italy drew in their last match against France.
France have won 13 of their last 14 matches against Italy.

Head to Head

Italy drew 13-all against France away during the 2024 Six Nations.

Italy Form

Italy come into this round three fixture with one win and a defeat in the opening two rounds. They have shown over the last 24 months that they have developed a proper squad filled with quality players, many of whom are young.

In round one, Italy got off to a sluggish start at Murrayfield against Scotland. They fought back into the game, but it was too little, too late as Scotland won 31-19.

Another opportunity for a victory presented itself in round two, this time at home against Wales. In poor conditions with a lot of rain, Italy dominated from start to finish, winning 22-15, although two late Wales scores made that scoreline flatter them.

Italy Injuries & Team News

Italy will likely select a side similar to the one that faced Wales. They have momentum on their side and a positive recent history against France.

France Form

France are second on the table with six points, level with third placed England but four points off Ireland. To have any hope of still winning the title, France simply have to win this fixture.

Les Bleus were dominant in round one as they cruised to a 43-0 success at home against a struggling Welsh side. However, in round two, they suffered a 26-25 defeat to England at Twickenham.

It was a game France should have won but they spurned numerous scoring opportunities over the course of 80 minutes. They could still have won but for an England converted try after the clock had gone red.

France Injuries & Team News

Fabian Galthie is reported thinking of having a 7/1 bench split, a tactic made famous by South Africa ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Thibaud Flament and Anthyony Jelonch are both expected to make a return to the side. Emmanuel Meafou is likely to miss the match through illness.

Verdict

Italy v France

France should have the quality to get the win, but I am backing it to be by less than 17.5 points.

Italy +17.5

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