New Zealand vs South Africa Preview - Can South Africa win against the odds in Rugby World Cup final?

A few weeks later, South Africa suffered a narrow 13-8 defeat to Ireland, the best side in the world at the time. Not as many wrote the Springboks off, but knowing they would have to face the hosts in the quarters, it did seem like a tough hill to climb.

Yet, despite all that adversity, possibly the two greatest Rugby Union nations meet in the final. There are many storylines one can draw from this fixture, one of the best is possibly one of these two will be the first to reach four World Cup titles (currently both are on three).

The All Blacks are still the only side that has managed to defend their title, a feat they managed in 2015 after winning the 2011 World Cup on home soil. The Springboks have the chance to match that feat after their 2019 triumph.

This is a very tough one to predict for various reasons. What is almost certain is that it will be a cracking contest.

Ian Foster’s side came into the World Cup as one of the favourites but their form had been patchy over the last few years. This included two defeats to Argentina, one at home, as well as a record loss to the Springboks in 2022.

They also suffered a home series loss to Ireland in 2022 before bouncing back to win the Rugby Championship. While they have shown some inconsistency, the one thing the mighty All Blacks have also shown is their ability to bounce back from setbacks.

Once New Zealand lost their opening World Cup game 27-13 to France, it was almost guaranteed that they would finish second (bar for a miracle from Italy). That is exactly what transpired, the All Blacks wiped Uruguay and Namibia aside before hammering Italy 96-17.

While Foster’s men were expected to beat Italy, that scoreline shocked the world. That is probably also when most realised that the men in black are not simply there to fill the numbers.

Onto the quarter-final, the All Blacks had to face Ireland, the side ranked at the top of the rankings. They had also played near faultless rugby to that point in the tournament.

But New Zealand produced their best performance in four years, probably even longer to win 28-24. That was a superb game to watch, a game in which the All Blacks made next to no errors.

That upset secured a semi-final against Argentina, a side New Zealand were expected to beat with relative comfort. There must however have been plenty of nerves as on their day, Los Pumas can produce big performances.

However, it was not their day, and the All Blacks comfortably booked their place in the final.

South Africa on the other hand have had a similar ride, but in many circumstances, vastly different.

After their 2019 World Cup win, South Africa were jubilant, and then coach (now Director of Rugby), Rassie Erasmus was dubbed the ‘miracle man’. It is easy to see why as the Springboks were down in the dumps in 2018 when Erasmus took over the reins.

After the World Cup, COVID struck, and like for most of the world, that meant disaster struck. South Africa were the only tier-one nation to play no international fixtures during 2020 which set them back an entire year on planning.

In 2021, the British & Irish Lions toured, a series marred by controversy and the now infamous Rassie Tape. Regardless, after losing the first Test, South Africa managed to claim the series 2-1.

Since then, it has been pretty inconsistent for the Springboks. But much of that is explainable as new coach, Jacques Nienaber and Erasmus, while clearly still trying to get results, put a large focus on building squad depth in every position.

This brought about frustrations as the Springboks failed to get consistent results. That fruit has, however, started to come to bear during this World Cup campaign as the hard work pays off.

The Springboks were unfortunate to be drawn in the pool of death (Pool B) alongside Ireland and Scotland. That didn’t hamper the Boks though as they beat Scotland 18-3 in a dominant performance on the opening weekend.

A big win over Romania followed before the Springboks came unstuck against Ireland by five points. During that game, Nienaber’s side, however, missed a number of kicks at goal which could have changed the result, although not guaranteed.

The performance was good enough though and the losing bonus point all but secured second place. A meeting with the hosts, France loomed in the quarter-final.

France were always narrow favourites heading into the clash, but this fixture was always going to be decided by less than a score. And so, it proved with Handre Pollard sinking the key penalty to and a one-point win.

That fixture took a massive physical and emotional toll on the three-time champions. It was always going to be a tough one to back up in the semi-final where England were waiting.

While many again thought that South Africa should comfortably win, and honestly, had it been the quarter-final, the Springboks might well have won by 15+.

But it was the semi-final, and England were written off ahead of the game, a place South Africa know well, and mostly flourish on. This time they were on the receiving end of a very motivated and tactically astute English side.

The Springboks won the match 16-15, again thanks to another massive penalty from Handre Pollard. But to say they weren’t very fortunate would be a lie. England were the better side for 70-odd minutes of that game.

We can go back and look at past results, or just results from this year between these two sides. I’m not sure any of that will matter come Saturday because this is a different story. This isn’t a Rugby Championship game or a warmup before the World Cup, this isn’t a game where coaches are trying different combinations or where secrets are being hidden. No one has home home-ground advantage. 

This is the biggest game in Rugby Union, one that only comes around every four years. So, who will have what it takes to lift that trophy?

It is hard to argue that the All Blacks have had the easier ride to the final. Ireland was a huge hurdle, but it was the only side they had to beat, while their defeat to France had little bearing on qualification.

South Africa had Scotland and Ireland in their group, so the pressure was on from the start. They then had to beat the hosts, France in front of a hostile crowd, and then get up to beat a very physical English side a week later.

But who benefits from that? The All Blacks have not been tested as much, but they surely have a bit more energy in the tank. South Africa may be running on fumes, however, to say they are battle-hardened would be the kind way to put it – they have been through the wringer, good and proper.