Italy vs New Zealand Predictions - Italy backed to make a game of it

Marc Thomas

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Last updated: 22 Nov 2024

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Marc Thomas 22 Nov 2024

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New Zealand has a perfect record against Italy with 16 wins.
Italy aims to stay within a 30-point loss margin.
Freezing weather may impact the game's dynamics.

Italy can cover at home against All Blacks (Getty Images)

Italy vs New Zealand Preview

History suggests that New Zealand will run away with this game and probably put up a big score. However, Italy have a good side despite some recent blowouts. Also to consider, the weather is forecast to be below 0 at kick off which could be a bit of a leveler.

Italy vs New Zealand Preview
Head to Head
Italy Form
Italy Injuries & Team News
New Zealand Form
New Zealand Injuries & Team News

I am backing Italy to get within to 30-point handicap.

Italy have won 5 of their last 7 matches.
New Zealand have won 5 of their last 6 matches.
New Zealand have won all 16 matches against Italy.
New Zealand have scored 68, 66, 47 & 96 points in their last 4 matches against Italy.

Head to Head

New Zealand have won all 16 matches against Italy. Their last meeting, at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, saw the All Blacks run in a mammoth 96-17 win.

Italy Form

Italian rugby has been in a good place for the last couple of years with some impressive Six Nations results. They do, however, have a habit of completely losing focus and getting blown away when no one expects it.

During the 2024 Six Nations, Italy lost 36-0 in Ireland, but other than that, lost by three points to England, drew with France, beat Scotland at home and Wales away.

On their mid-year Southern Hemisphere tour, Italy lost to Samoa before beating Tonga and Japan. But then, a fortnight ago, when many expected a cracking contest against Argentina, Italy were annihilated 50-18.

The Italians did get some pride back last weekend with a 20-17 success against another fast-improving nation, Georgia.

Italy Injuries & Team News

Good news for Italy as fullback Ange Capuozzo returns from injury and starts. Captain, Michele Lamoara misses out through injury, so Juan Ignacio Brex takes over the captaincy.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand are looking a more and more dangerous side by the week as Scott Robertson starts getting the side to gel like he wants them to. The All Blacks were patchy against England in July at home before losing to Argentina at home and twice away to South Africa in the Rugby Championship.

However, the All Blacks then beat the Wallabies twice before embarking on their tour to the north. On their way, New Zealand beat Japan before narrowly defeating England 24-22 at Twickenham.

That performance was followed by a superb one as the All Blacks took down Ireland (23-13) at the Aviva Stadium where Ireland had not lost in 19 games. Last week, the 2023 Rugby World Cup runners-up did come up short (just) as they lost 30-29 to France in Paris.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News

Scott Robertson is not messing around this week after naming a very strong side. Sam Cane and TJ Perenara will both start their final games in an All Black jersey before heading overseas.

Verdict

Italy v New Zealand

Italy are backed to lose by less than 30 points.

Italy +30

Handicap

@-109.89 - 3 Units

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