Rugby Championship 2024 Preview - Can South Africa make the favourable draw count?

The All Blacks have dominated the tournament since its inauguration and have claimed 20 titles. South Africa and Australia have won four each while Los Pumas have yet to top the table.

While these teams have consistently dominated world rugby as proven by the amount of World Cup success enjoyed by the Southern Hemisphere, recent years have seen a boom in the Northern Hemisphere.

Onto 2024 where it is expected to be a titanic battle for the title. South Africa are favourites, closely followed by New Zealand while Australia and Argentina are given little chance by the bookmakers.

South Africa last won the Rugby Championship in 2019 with New Zealand winning the next four, including the 2023 tournament.

Below we take a look at each team to see how their chances measure up in 2024.

The Springboks are back-to-back world champions and are now the only team to win the William Webb Ellis trophy four times. The stock of South African rugby has been on the rise since Rassie Erasmus took over as coach/Director of Rugby in 2017.

While World Cup success has certainly garnered much praise, it must be said that the Boks have not been very consistent for a long time. Last year, they comfortably beat New Zealand at home but the following week suffered defeat on home soil to the same opponents.

While it is a clear race between the Springboks and All Blacks in 2024, much will depend on the two games between the sides.

South Africa are once again at home in both matches against New Zealand. That is a massive bonus as their record in the ‘land of the long white cloud’ is not very good.

But first things first, the Springboks begin their campaign with two matches against Australia away from home. That will be their first Test given their very average record in Australia. Despite the Wallabies struggles in recent years, they have still managed consistent home wins over the Springboks.

Once those two matches are over, South Africa return home for a double header against the All Blacks. Those two weeks are likely to decide where the Rugby Championship trophy resides for the next year.

In terms of squad composition, there are a few new and inexperienced players within the Springbok squad, but there are also a number of World Cup winners.

Despite a few crucial injuries, South Africa have a side more than capable of claiming the title.

New Zealand are not often underdogs going into any tournament, but they are for the 2024 Rugby Championship. However, as many have learned, the All Blacks can never be written off, there is something about their DNA that ensures that they will be there or there about at the end.

Not many expected the All Blacks to thrive at the World Cup last year, especially not after being thumped in a warm-up game by South Africa and then by France in the tournament opener.

However, the men in black fought back, caused an upset against Ireland in the quarters, and were very close to beating South Africa in the final – after playing the majority of the match a man down.

It will be tough for the All Blacks this year though, they are in a transition period under a new coaching regime, but they showed in the recent series against England that they still have plenty of talent.

The All Blacks will be expected to beat Argentina twice at home in the opening two weeks, but the critical games will be in South Africa on 31 August and 7 September. 

New Zealand, despite not being at their very best, have a score to settle with South Africa and have won regularly in the Republic. If they manage that again, even in just one of the two games, they could be on for a fifth successive Rugby Championship title.

Argentina have long been a force in world rugby, claiming regular upset victories over the years. However, it is hard to argue that their participation in the Rugby Championship hasn’t further improved them with regular games against top quality sides.

Los Pumas reached the semi-final of the Rugby World Cup in 2023, their second visit to the last four after reaching that stage in 2007 as well.

However, despite their improvement over the years, Argentina generally struggles to compete with the top teams with any consistency. Since 2012 when Argentina joined the Rugby Championship, they have only managed to avoid the wooden spoon on three occasions (2015, 2020 & 2023).

That said, Los Pumas have managed to beat all three teams at some point since 2012. They achieved their first ever win over New Zealand in 2022 while they’ve won their last two fixtures against Australia and regularly competed with the Aussies since 2018.

This year is perhaps the first time Argentina come into the Rugby Championship without the favourites tag to finish bottom – that tag belongs to Australia this time around.

The Argentines have a tough start to their campaign, traveling to New Zealand for a double header. That will be followed by a double header against Australia at home, where they will be hopeful of positive results in both fixtures.

The Rugby Championship finishes off with Argentina facing South Africa home and away.

While their home series against a weakened French side did not go according to plan in July, Argentina will be a handful in the Rugby Championship. They will be very dangerous at home but have the ability to break games open on the road as well.

The goal this year will be to finish third or even second if they can get a result against New Zealand away from home.

Rugby Union as a sport is struggling to compete in a very competitive market in Australia. Rugby League has taken its toll on the sport and financially, Union can’t compete.

This has been happening for a few years now and the long-term effects are being felt. Last year, Australia were knocked out in the group stage of the Rugby World Cup, the first time ever for the two-time world champions.

The Wallabies last Rugby Championship title came in 2015, a shortened event due to the Rugby World Cup that year. Last year they finished bottom of the table after defeat at home to Argentina.

As a proud sporting nation, Australia are always capable of producing world class performances, but that has become one-off results in recent years, not sustained periods of dominance.

The Wallabies were decent in their 2-0 home series win against Wales in July before also seeing off Georgia. Joe Schmidt will bring a lot as the new head coach to Australia, but it remains to be seen how they react against top opposition.

The Aussies host South Africa for the first two weeks of the Rugby Championship before flying off for a double header in Argentina. They finish off with home/away fixtures against New Zealand.

Key to Australia will be how their game plan can adapt, they can no longer play the expansive style they’ve become known for. Schmidt will be working on set pieces and the tight five considering how weak the Aussies have been in that area.

I wouldn’t be so quick to write them up for the wooden spoon just yet though. They have a good record against South Africa at home and Argentina away should be a good battle. Winning the title is probably out of their reach, but they certainly can cause a few upsets on the way.