Wellington vs Southland Predictions - Southland can surprise Wellington

There is value in backing the visitors to get within 20 points this weekend.

Wellington have won their last 15 matches against Southland. Last season they won 39-17 at home.

As expected, Wellington have made a strong start to the season, winning all four games to date. They are currently second on the table, five points behind Hawkes Bay with a game in hand.

Wellington are favourites to win the NPC this year, as they were in 2023 but were knocked out in the semis. Wellington beat Auckland, Taranaki and Manawatu in the opening three rounds.

Last weekend, Wellington went to Canterbury and thrashed the hosts 46-21 in a commanding performance. That win has set the tone of what we can expect for the rest of the season.

Wellington will see this fixture as an opportunity to rest one or two key players, especially with a midweek fixture against Otago coming up on Wednesday.

Southland have made a very good start to their season considering they are usually fighting it out at the bottom of the table. They have won two of their four games and sit seventh on the table.

Southland began the season with a very impressive 22-13 home win over Otago before losing 31-17 at Hawkes Bay. In round three, Southland were again competitive against a top side in Taranaki, losing 39-24 at home.

Last weekend, Southland put in a fine performance to beat Northland 31-26 away from home.

Southland won’t want to change too much although this is a game they may feel is a stretch too far.