Wellington vs Hawkes Bay Predictions - Wellington to break Hawkes Bay hoodoo

However, Hawkes Bay have been defensively poor over the last three matches, and I struggle to see how they can keep Wellington quiet. I am backing the hosts to cover -8.

Hawkes Bay have won three of their last five matches against Wellington, including both encounters last season. In the round robin fixture, Hawkes Bay won 20-18 at Wellington and then in the semi-final, Hawkes Bay were too good in Wellington again, upsetting the odds with a 25-24 success.

Wellington have a chance to move top off the NPC table with a win at home against Hawkes Bay. That may be a short stay at the top depending on other results though.

Of their nine matches, Wellington have won seven and lost just two. They did come into the NPC this year as favourites to win it and while they have gotten results, Wellington have not always been at their fluent best.

Last weekend, Wellington rested a host of players away at Counties Manukau and paid the price, losing 51-12. It was a game they would have fancied winning at full strength and it could ultimately cost them top of the table.

Wellington simply must win this fixture to have any chance of going top and staying there. However, that isn’t guaranteed. If they do lose the favourites could easily end the season in fourth.

Hawkes Bay have endured a strange season to date. They are currently fifth on the table with six wins from nine and have 32 points.

After reaching the NPC final in 2023, it should be seen as another solid season for The Bay. However, after a flying start in which they won five on the bounce, Hawkes Bay lost three in a row.

Going down 25-24 at home to the unbeaten Tasman at the time was no disgrace, but the two results that followed was concerning. Hawkes Bay lost 50-5 at Waikato and followed it up with a 63-19 defeat at home to Taranaki.

Fortunately, they ended that run with a 36-35 home win last weekend against Auckland. The number of points they have conceded over the last three weeks will be a massive concern for this weekend and heading into the playoffs.

Hawkes Bay could climb above Wellington with victory here although other results will almost certainly move them back down to third on fourth. Still, The Bay will be happy with that as it secures a home quarter-final.