2024 South African National Election Odds - Who will lead the Rainbow Nation for the next 5 years?

In 2019, the ANC dropped from 62.15% in 2014 to 57.50%. They are expected to drop significantly once again in 2024 with many forecasts predicting they will be below the majority (50%) which will force them into a national coalition for the first time.

There is little doubt that the ANC will receive the highest percentage vote, but the big question is whether the Democratic Alliance (DA) will be able to gain those votes the ANC lost.

The ANC are favourites at 1.03 with Sportingbet to win the national elections while the DA are priced at 13.00 to cause a national upset. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are paying 41.00 while a new party with former President, Jacob Zuma at the helm, the MK Party, are valued at 51.00.

This is poised to be one of South Africa’s closest ever elections for national as well as regional and provincial. 

The rise of a number of smaller parties is a major concern for the big three (ANC, DA & EFF), because votes are being taken from them. Rise Mzansi, Action SA and BOSA are three of the parties, alongside the MK party, that have made some waves across South Africa.

While all four will be contesting their first ever elections, they are expected to get one or two percent each, which is a major loss for the big three.

The best value on the table is perhaps in backing the ANC to get over/under 43.5% with Sportingbet. While below that will be a complete disaster for the party that lead South Africa out of apartheid, many believe that much of their support, particularly in urban areas, has dwindled.

The final market offered is for who will receive the second most votes nationally. That is again almost guaranteed with the DA priced at 1.12 with Sportingbet and the ANC at 13.00, EFF at 11.00 and MK Party at 21.00.

Like the ANC, the DA dropped in national votes from 2014 to 2019. It was just over a percent, but they will be hoping to climb up towards the 25% market this year.

Current President, Cyril Ramaphosa is once again the face of the ANC campaign while John Steenhuisen is the presidential hopeful for the DA. Julius Malema, former ANC Youth League Leader is the head of the EFF while Jacob Zuma leads the MK Party.

In the last election, Mmusi Maimane was the face of the DA, but after he was ousted, he started his own party in BOSA. Another former DA loyalist, Herman Mashaba is the founder of Action SA.